The 2012 NFL Draft has come and gone, but the fantasy season looms on the horizon. My personal philosophy is TALENT over situation. I generally utilize my pre-draft rankings based on college tape in combination with how high a player was drafted to create initial dynasty rankings. That being said, some situations are tempting and have to be accounted for.
1. Andrew Luck QB/IND
Too talented and the Colts seem to have a developmental plan with weapons
2. Robert Griffin QB/WAS
Running ability will fool some people to have him #1, but Luck a safer pick
3. Ryan Tannehill QB/MIA
Fantasy starter upside in a few years
4. Brandon Weeden QB/CLE
He’ll start ASAP, but how good will he be
5. Nick Foles QB/PHI
Andy Reid can develop QBs. Foles could pay dividends down the line for your dynasty team
6. Brock Osweiler QB/DEN
Developing behind Peyton Manning could help him. Has the upside of a Luck/RGIII
7. Kirk Cousins QB/WAS
If RGIII does go down, Cousins could step in and be a spot fantasy starter
8. BJ Coleman QB/GB
We know how well GB develops QB talent, and Rodgers still has that concussion history. Worth a shot
9. Russell Wilson QB/SEA
If Flynn fails, Wilson could get a shot. Running ability should help for fantasy.
10. Ryan Lindley QB/ARI
Not as much competition as many before him and throws some excellent balls
11. Chandler Harnish QB/IND
See Kirk Cousins, but Harnish as a longer way to go
12. Aaron Corp QB/BUF
Could be an opening on that core and Corp has pretty good tools
13. GJ Kinne QB/NYJ
I know Tebow/Sanchez are in front of him, but he has some attributes on par with them.
14. Case Keenum QB/HOU
Kubiak likes him a lot, could make the roster
15. Austin Davis QB/STL
Nice mobility, productive starter. Could make the roster.
1. Trent Richardson RB/CLE
Comes in as an every down back, stud for 5 years.
2. Doug Martin RB/TB
Instant starter, solid runner. Only fear is he ends up like Donald Brown, but Martin has talents in every facet of the game
3. David Wilson RB/NYG
Great fit to compliment Bradshaw. Not an every week starter, but in PPR could be very valuable.
4. Lamar Miller RB/MIA
Injury issues aside, 2nd most talented back in the draft. Can beat out Thomas and be the man in two years.
5. Isaiah Pead RB/STL
One of the better situations, but can he be an every down back like the Top 4? That is the big question.
6. Lamichael James RB/SF
Talent over situation. Gore is done, Jacobs may be cut, James could have value end of the year and beyond
7. Robert Turbin RB/SEA
Can win the back-up job to Lynch and snake carries by the end of the year. Tough tough runner.
8. Chris Rainey RB/PIT
Lots of catches, high upside, but likely needs developing. Have to love the situation.
9. Cyrus Gray RB/KC
If another injury happens, Gray can step in. Talented player who fits very well.
10. Bernard Pierce RB/BAL
Meat and Potatoes runner to back-up Ray Rice. Handcuff who could pay dividends at the goal line.
11. Ronne Hillman RB/DEN
Overdrafted, is he fast or quick enough for the league? Situation is great, but be weary.
12. Edwin Baker RB/SD
Could go the way of Jordan Todman, but he is a great compliment to Ryan Mathews and doesn’t have much competition.
13. Vick Ballard RB/IND
As talented as Delone Carter, could compete for spot on the roster
14. Dan Herron RB/CIN
Talent over situation, not as good as BJGE or Scott. Could stick on the roster though and get some PT out of necessity.
15. Terrence Ganaway RB/NYJ
Can he even beat out Bilal Powell? Too many cooks in this kitchen for Ganaway to make it. Maybe as a back-up FB.
16. Michael Smith RB/TB
Could get on as a 3rd RB if healthy. Nice compliment to the other two runners, but has an uphill climb
17. Alfred Morris RB/WAS
Shanny could use him, and he could beat out Royster. Not talented, but fits one cut system
18. Bryce Brown RB/PHI
Has upside, but could be out of the league before the season starts. High reward if he hits, but long road ahead
19. Chris Polk RB/PHI
Degenerative hip caused his fall, but he is talented. Can he win the 3rd RB spot over Brown? You decide.
20. Daryl Richardson RB/STL
Could make the team as the #3, but very developmental in instincts/cuts
21. Jonathan Grimes RB/HOU
Houston signed 3 RBs (Davin Meggett, Jason Ford, and Jonathan Grimes). Everyone will talk up the other two, but Grimes has Ahmad Bradshaw type ability. DEEP sleeper for the team that found Arian Foster in the rough.
22. Bobby Rainey RB/BAL
Baltimore needs to replace those RBs, and Rainey is a productive player who fits their mold.
23. Marc Tyler RB/GB
There is a need, not sure if he makes a roster, but there is upside here
24. Tauren Poole RB/CAR
Cluttered situation, but a talented player from Tennessee who showed roster skill.
25. Darrell Scott RB/DAL
Another talented back who quit on his teams. Dallas does need someone to compete with Tanner though.
1. Justin Blackmon WR/JAC
Talent over situation, and though he starts from Day 1, you can’t like Gabbert throwing him the ball,
2. Kendall Wright WR/TEN
Less downside than Floyd and a good young core where he won’t be asked to do too much.
3. AJ Jenkins WR/SF
May be overdrafted but he will be a very productive player for the 49ers and is a great fit if they start to pass more.
4. Michael Floyd WR/ARI
Talent is there, upside is there, but Kolb and Fitz limit it for fantasy perhaps.
5. Stephen Hill WR/NYJ
Raw, but should start early. Has upside of a Randy Moss, so worth a flyer if you have the time to be patient.
6. Alshon Jeffery WR/CHI
Bears had him rated as 3rd best WR, and he can be if everything goes his way. Will he be motivated? If so, could be a scary #2.
7. Mohamed Sanu WR/CIN
Doesn’t have much upside and will have to compete for the job with Marvin Jones, but if he gets the #2 spot, he can be used a lot.
8. DeVier Posey WR/HOU
The opening is there and the talent is there, he just needs to put his head in his playbook and hunker down.
9. Marvin Jones WR/CIN
Take your pick of Sanu and Jones. One will work out, grab both to hedge your bets?
10. Brian Quick WR/STL
Needs development, but situation is open. I’ll let someone else pounce on him.
11. Chris Givens WR/STL
Slot type who is better than Greg Salas. If he toughens up, could be a starter. Would almost take him over Quick.
12. Ryan Broyles WR/DET
We’ll see if the ACL is healed, may need a year, but he fits so well in the slot role in the middle of the field
13. Juron Criner WR/OAK
Type of WR they need. Big, long, possession. Kind of have to get him on the field in this offense.
14. Greg Childs WR/MIN
Some massive upside if healthy and there is an opening to be productive. Big time sleeper.
15. TJ Graham WR/BUF
Slot WR for them, but more talented than anyone sans Steve Johnson
16. Danny Coale WR/DAL
Not overly talented, but can fill the Laurent Robinson role. With how much this team passes, could work out fantasy wise.
17. Rueben Randle WR/NYG
Dislike the player, but see the fit. Probably will go too early for my tastes.
18. TY Hilton WR/IND
Jerrel Jernigan esque, but not much competition and a big bump in return yardage leagues,
19. Joe Adams WR/CAR
Adams speed with Cam Newton’s arm is very scary. High upside pick.
20. Devon Wylie WR/KC
If healthy, can be a dynamic weapon. Wylie is a risky dynasty selection, but could take over for Breaston sooner rather than later
21. Keshawn Martin WR/HOU
Fits in he slot, maybe not a big time player, but could be a #4 in Houston to start the season
22. Nick Toon WR/NO
Fits to replace Meachem’s production perhaps, but injuries REALLY could crop up.
23. Rishard Matthew WR/MIA
Situation is open and a much better player than Cunningham who was drafted higher.
24. Jarius Wright WR/MIN
Really like him, wonder if he can fit into the slot for Vikings.
25. Tommy Streeter WR/BAL
High upside, but could fizzle out.
26. Marvin McNutt WR/Iowa
Very talented, but upside is limited
27. LaVon Brazill WR/IND
Pretty talented and could make the roster or at least PS
28. BJ Cunningham WR/MIA
Situation is good, talent is poor. Think Austin Pettis’ impact last year
29. Junior Hemingway WR/KC
Big upside, but may struggle to find a spot on the Chiefs
30. Jordan White WR/NYJ
Productive WR, maybe can be a #4 or #5.
31. Travis Benjamin WR/CLE
Josh Cribbs part 2 at best
32. Tony Clemons WR/PIT
Developmental Practice Squad type
33. Jeremy Ebert WR/NYJ
Productive player, but has development to go
34. Dale Moss WR/GB
High upside player on a passing offense? I like!
35. Eric Page WR/DEN
Very quick and fast player. Productive and could see the roster
36. Jeff Fuller WR/MIA
Paired with his old QB. If you get junior Fuller, you will be sitting pretty.
37. Dwight Jones WR/HOU
Fits the team well if motivated
38. Julian Talley WR/NYG
UDFA type from the school and team that found Victor Cruz. Coincidence? He is very talented and quick
39. Patrick Edwards WR/DET
Slot WR that could make the team if Broyles isn’t ready.
40. Chris Owusu WR/SF
Goes with the former coach. If over concussion issues, he can be a weapon
1. Coby Fleener TE/IND
Back with Luck, no real competition from vets, pass catcher and red zone threat. Very nice
2. Ladarius Green TE/SD
Heir apparent to Antonio Gates with huge upside. Worth a shot
3. Evan Rodriguez TE/CHI
Really talented pass catcher and can block some too. No competition in Chicago really, could make a real impact.
4. Dwayne Allen TE/IND
Sure, he has Fleener there, but in a two TE system, you have to imagine he gets his shot.
5. Michael Egnew TE/MIA
Has some talent as a receiver, but will compete with Fasano and Clay
6. Orson Charles TE/CIN
Great talent, but has some mental lapses. How much PT will he get?
7, Adrien Robinson TE/NYG
Type of TE the Giants like and he has as much talent as Ballard at the very least.
8. Taylor Thompson TE/TEN
Huge upside, but hasn’t played TE in 4 years. High risk
9. James Hanna TE/DAL
Natural to take over for Martellus Bennett
10. Derek Carrier TE/OAK
For a team that has no TEs, Carrier is a player who could shoot up the roster
11. DeAngelo Peterson TE/STL
Raw, but productive TE. Could find a role on the Rams.
12. David Paulson TE/PIT
Pittsburgh lacks TE depth, Paulson could make the team.
13. Brian Linthicum TE/NYJ
Blocking TE to Keller’s pass catching?
14. Brad Smelley TE/CLE
Tweener, but could provide an interesting threat
15. Matt Veldman TE/JAC
Has some upside catching passes.
This is an extremely deep class, especially at WR, for dynasty leagues. Trade down in your rookie drafts if you can to pick up picks and see who pans out in camp. Those that do may pay rich dividends.
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